In The News

Jeff Schween for The Press Democrat – There Is No Game Eight

There Is No Game Eight

As the close of a season that saw in-numerous NBA records set by the Golden State Warriors you can only imagine the bittersweet taste of knowing there is not another game to play. Having set new dimensions for how the game can be won, in the end that’s all there was – no second title, no trophy, just a feeling of incompleteness. The Warriors got out in front of their opponent and may have even gotten complacent about knowing they could close the deal on what they sought.

Similarly, we have seen players in the real estate market pull away from the precipice of success while finding themselves poised to accomplish the goals they have set in front of them. Typically it has been with the thought of, “we will just get the next one that feels right”. Well, as too many have seen, finding the next one is more than just a challenge – it’s become a quest. The complacency of leaning on the “if it’s meant to be then it’s meant to be” mindset has landed many in the same spot the Warriors now find themselves. Being armed with the proper analytics, premier guidance and fire in the belly to get what you want, is not all you need – though it’s a good start.

According to BAREIS MLS, May saw inventory nudge ahead of the prior year by two percent to close the month out with 763 single-family homes for sale. The county welcomed 442 new listings to the market during the month – 27 percent less than last May – while 502 units garnered accepted offers – three percent greater than in 2015. Buyers managed to formally acquire 409 homes by the end of the month, leaving the county with a months’ supply of inventory (MSI) of 1.9 – good macro information.

MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is generally indicative of a balanced market, with lower numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.

As the population of the Santa Rosa marketplace has surged to more than 170,000 people, it is no wonder why the largest volume of transactions in the North Bay occur here every year. This gateway to wine country is comprised of five distinct regions, each with numerous communities within their boundaries.

The submarket of Northeast Santa Rosa saw the introduction of 72 new homes in May – 32 percent fewer than the same month last year – and by months end the markets were encouraged to know there were 126 units available for those seeking new shelter. Buyers jumped into contract on 71 new purchase agreements while sellers were able to complete the passing of an additional 69 properties during the month, allowing the MSI to steady at 1.8 – essentially a repeat of the year before.

Comparatively in Southeast Santa Rosa, there were 57 single-family homes available as the month wrapped up – 16 percent more than a year ago. This submarket experienced the debut of 40 new listings during the month – a 10 percent departure from last May – while buyers gathered accepted offers on 41 more dwellings and sellers handed over the title on 28 houses causing the MSI to tighten up to 2.0 – alerting buyers to get more offensive oriented in their play within the real estate markets.

Oakmont kept pace with the greater marketplace in May, though it experienced a 58 percent drop in new inventory from the same time last year with a meager 11 new offerings for buyers to peruse. The month found home shoppers obtaining accepted offers on 15 more properties while sellers cut to the rim completing 14 more deals, leaving this region with an MSI of 1.2 – making a persuasive argument for readying more houses for the market.

The tightest submarket within Santa Rosa remains the Northwest sector. As prices continued to climb, May welcomed 43 new listings while watching sellers complete 39 transactions – leaving just 39 properties available for purchase by the close of the month. Voracious buyers captured 60 new contracts on homes – some of which never truly made it to the open market – pushing the pace of the MSI to 1.0 – denoting a hot summer ahead for sellers.

Southwest Santa Rosa found its market compressing further than in 2015 with only 18 homes to select from by months end – 28 percent less than last May – which was inclusive of the 22 properties that were inbound during the period as well. Buyers continued to set the pace by gaining acceptance on 18 new offers while sellers pressed the court with 14 completed sales allowing the MSI to settle at 1.3 – suggesting overtime is likely the result for the summer months ahead.

You cannot truly recognize success until it is behind you, but that feeling of incompleteness will continue to haunt those who have side stepped making a full commitment to their own dream. You must play to win, rather than playing not to lose!

Jeff Schween

By Jeff Schween, of Pacific Union International’s Santa Rosa office.